The Singapore private housing market experienced a significant rebound in July 2024, with new launch sales surging 150% month-on-month to 571 units, excluding executive condominiums (ECs). This marks a dramatic turnaround from June's near-record low of 228 units sold.
Despite this uptick, the overall market performance for 2024 remains subdued. According to Leonard Tay, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore, new private home sales have averaged 357 units monthly so far this year, considerably lower than previous years. For comparison, 2023 averaged 556 units monthly, 2022 saw 616 units, and 2021 recorded a robust 1,114 units per month. Even 2020, amidst a pandemic-induced recession, outperformed with an average of 861 units sold monthly.
The total number of new private homes sold from January to July 2024 stands at 2,460 units, representing a 48.7% year-on-year decline from the 4,796 units sold in the same period in 2023. The first half of 2024 hit a record low for half-yearly sales at 1,889 units, even lower than the previous all-time low of 1,977 units recorded during the Global Financial Crisis in the first half of 2008.
Two new project launches primarily drove July's sales revival. The 440-unit Sora on Yuan Ching Road in the Jurong Lake District and the 276-unit Kassia at Flora Drive in the Changi area were instrumental in boosting sales figures.
Kassia, a freehold development, emerged as the top seller in July, moving 154 units at a median price of $2,049 per square foot (psf). The project is now approximately 55.8% sold. Notably, 152 units sold were priced at $2 million or below, with over 70% of one-bedroom and one-plus-study units finding buyers, many at $1 million or less.
Sora, the second-best performer, sold 103 units at a median price of $2,152 psf, achieving a 23.4% sell-through rate. The 99-year leasehold development in the Jurong Lake District features a 300-meter frontage along Jurong Lake Gardens. One-plus-study and two-bedroom units were particularly popular, with over 90% selling for $2 million or below.
The launch of these suburban projects shifted the sales distribution, with the Outside of Central Region (OCR) accounting for 77.8% of July's sales, up from 56.1% in June. The Rest of the Central Region (RCR) made up 18.6% of sales, while the Core Central Region (CCR) accounted for just 3.7%.
Looking ahead, the traditional Hungry Ghost Month (August 4 to September 2, 2024) is expected to dampen sales, with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 units. However, September promises renewed activity with several notable launches, including the 158-unit 8@BT along Bukit Timah Link, the 226-unit Meyer Blue on Meyer Road, and the 366-unit Union Square Residences along Havelock Road.
Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore, anticipates a significant increase in new launches for the second half of 2024. He projects approximately 2,512 units to be launched in the third quarter, followed by an additional 4,200 units in the fourth quarter, substantially surpassing the 2,495 units launched in the first half of the year.
Despite the recent uptick, market analysts have revised their annual forecasts downward. Knight Frank's Tay now expects between 4,000 to 6,000 units to be transacted in 2024, down from his initial prediction of 7,000 to 9,000 units. Huttons projects new home sales could end the year at around 5,500 units, with prices still expected to increase by about 4%.
As the Singapore private housing market navigates through economic uncertainties and regulatory measures, the latter half of 2024 will be crucial in determining the sector's overall performance for the year.